The Sir Rebral Seven - Week 4
We’re in for a fun week. If last week was any indicator of the exciting stuff to come (70-pt game, the Swifties learning football, the Sir Rebral Seven hitting a 67% success rate), I’m feeling good about Week 4. Let’s keep rolling and counting stacks.
As with every week, I present to you my expertly selected Sir Rebral Seven -- the picks I feel strongest about. And, as with every week, I’ve got my volume betting strategy in mind. Volume is the only way to overcome that pesky variance.
The Sir Rebral Seven
👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: JAX -3 against ATL
Cerebral Index Rating: 95 (out of maximum 100)
Pip, pip, cheerio! This game’s taking us across the pond to London. The Jaguars matchup quite nicely against an Atlanta team that proved to us last week that their pass attack is a complete non-threat. So long as the Jaguars don’t get demolished by the Atlanta rush attack, they should win this game comfortably. Trevor Lawrence and his receivers will bounce back and flourish against the Atlanta secondary.
👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: MIN -3.5 at CAR
Cerebral Index Rating: 97
The Panthers are down several defensive backs this week, and they face a Vikings team that has a lethal pass attack, and is desperate for their first win. Meanwhile, Bryce Young will get the start, which bodes worse for Carolina than having Andy Dalton start. It’s going to be a long year for Carolina, and the Vikings will get on the board with a win this week against a weak and rebuilding Panthers team.
👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: NE +7 at DAL
Cerebral Index Rating: 95
Belichick and the Patriots are geniuses at defensive scheming, and they meet with the Cowboys this week who haven’t proved us much on the offensive side of the ball this season. The Cowboys will not be running up the score in this game, almost guaranteed, so the Patriots will make this a close game, and might even win outright. The Cowboys defense last week gave up 200 rushing yards against Arizona, so this squad has too many question marks right now after their major cool-off following the hot start the first two weeks.
👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: KC -10 at NYJ
Cerebral Index Rating: 96
The Jets are in disarray right now, as their offensive is predictably a zero with Zach Wilson. The locker room is divided with the coaches. The Jets defensive line that we knew to dominate last year, is no longer dominating. They face a Chiefs team who is starting to come together on both the defensive and offensive sides of the ball, and timing is everything. Patrick Mahomes and company will squash the Jets and send them to 1-3 on the season. The Chiefs win both sides of the line play this week, not to mention the best quarterback in the league going up against the worst.
👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: CIN -2.5 at TEN
Cerebral Index Rating: 96
The Titans get far too much respect for being at home, as their anemic offense and spotty defense is certainly outmatched against Joe Burrow and a Bengals defense that looks to finally have gotten it together last week. The Bengals win this game by a touchdown, as the Titans just cannot manufacture enough points to keep it as close as the spread indicates the game might be.
👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: CIN TEN Under 41
Cerebral Index Rating: 97
This matchup features two offenses who are far from being in a groove right now, and quite solid defensive competition. This game would take some major variance to go over 41 points, because after last week, Tennessee seems like they could score under 10 points every game for a while.
👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: DEN CHI Over 46
Cerebral Index Rating: 98
When the two worst defenses in the league, by a mile, meet in a matchup, you bet the over. Plain and simple.
🙅♂️SIR REBRAL STAY AWAY🙅♂️: PHI -8.5 v WSH
Don’t touch this spread!
The Eagles are most definitely going to win this game by a healthy margin, but the Commanders defensive front will be their biggest test yet this season. Washington might keep the Eagles offense contained a bit, so I think all things considered, the Eagles win by about 10 points, given their offensive disparity. It’s too close to the spread, so definitely lay off this bet. It wouldn’t take much variance for the Commanders to cover.
The Spread Selects
KC -10 @ NYJ PROJECTION: KC 27 NYJ 9 (KC BY 18, 8 PT DIFFERENCE)
SEA +1 @ NYG PROJECTION: SEA 29 NYG 24 (SEA BY 5, 6 PT DIFFERENCE)
CIN -2.5 @ TEN PROJECTION: CIN 21 TEN 13 (CIN BY 8, 5.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
ARI +14 @ SF PROJECTION: SF 28 ARI 19 (SF BY 9, 5 PT DIFFERENCE)
GB +1.5 v DET PROJECTION: GB 23 DET 20 (GB BY 3, 4.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
LAR -1 @ IND PROJECTION: LAR 27 IND 22 (LAR BY 5, 4 PT DIFFERENCE)
HOU +3 v PIT PROJECTION: HOU 24 PIT 23 (HOU BY 1, 4 PT DIFFERENCE)
DEN -3.5 @ CHI PROJECTION: DEN 30 CHI 23 (DEN BY 7, 3.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
NE +6.5 @ DAL PROJECTION: DAL 20 NE 17 (DAL BY 3, 3.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
JAX -3 v ATL (LON) PROJECTION: JAX 24 ATL 18 (JAX BY 6, 3 PT DIFFERENCE)
TB +3.5 @ NO PROJECTION: NO 17 TB 16 (NO BY 1, 2.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
MIN -4 @ CAR PROJECTION: MIN 27 CAR 21 (MIN BY 6, 2 PT DIFFERENCE)
BAL +3 @ CLE PROJECTION: CLE 20 BAL 19 (CLE BY 1, 2 PT DIFFERENCE)
The Over/Under Selects
TB @ NO UNDER 40.5 PROJECTION: NO 17 TB 16 (7.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
CIN @ TEN UNDER 41.5 PROJECTION: CIN 21 TEN 13 (7.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
DEN @ CHI OVER 46 PROJECTION: DEN 30 CHI 23 (7 PT DIFFERENCE)
LV @ LAC OVER 48 PROJECTION: LAC 31 LV 24 (7 PT DIFFERENCE)
NE @ DAL UNDER 43.5 PROJECTION: DAL 20 NE 17 (6.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
KC @ NYJ UNDER 42 PROJECTION: KC 27 NYJ 9 (6 PT DIFFERENCE)
PIT @ HOU OVER 41.5 PROJECTION: HOU 24 PIT 23 (5.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
SEA @ NYG OVER 47.5 PROJECTION: SEA 29 NYG 24 (5.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
LAR @ IND OVER 45.5 PROJECTION: LAR 27 IND 22 (3.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
DET @ GB UNDER 45.5 PROJECTION: GB 23 DET 20 (2.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
ARI @ SF OVER 44.5 PROJECTION: SF 28 ARI 19 (2.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
MIA @ BUF OVER 53.5 PROJECTION: BUF 30 MIA 26 (2.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
MIN @ CAR OVER 46 PROJECTION: MIN 27 CAR 21 (2 PT DIFFERENCE)
Stay Aways
PHI -8.5 v WSH PROJECTION: PHI 26 WSH 16 (PHI BY 10, 1.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
LAC -5.5 v LV PROJECTION: LAC 31 LV 24 (LAC BY 7, 1.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
BUF -3 v MIA PROJECTION: BUF 30 MIA 26 (BUF BY 4, 1 PT DIFFERENCE)
BAL @ CLE UNDER 40.5 PROJECTION: CLE 20 BAL 19 (1.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
WSH @ PHI UNDER 43.5 PROJECTION: PHI 26 WSH 16 (1.5 PT DIFFERENCE)
JAX v ATL UNDER 43 PROJECTION: JAX 24 ATL 18 (1 PT DIFFERENCE)
Can’t get enough? I recapped Week 3 over on my YouTube channel. Get into the nitty gritty with me.
Here’s to another thrilling and exhilarating week of NFL. If I’m not in your inbox, you can find me on Twitter, TikTok, Youtube, and Instagram. Happy watching and happy betting.
Let’s make some money,
-- Joey
